HAPPENSNEXT now records the first grounded forecast lifecycle, but does not make aggregate accuracy, calibration, or superiority claims before a clean prospective sample resolves.
A forecast cannot be scored honestly until the question has a resolution rule, a deadline, and an outcome that can be checked independently.
The previous ECB validation/calibration lineage was invalidated for temporal-ordering reasons. Its historical rows remain preserved, but it is not an official public metric.
Only Bundesliga 1X2 is grounded in M0. Other domains are scenario analysis or unsupported; WorldSim is unavailable and Market Intelligence remains research-only.
For the supported route, the registered specialist predictor owns the stored 1X2 vector.
The card reports pre-cutoff inputs, source timestamps, data sufficiency and limitations.
Updates are new revisions. The original probability stays preserved until reality resolves it.