Technology questions can be reframed into a useful future-facing scenario, but no technology probability route is registered in M0.
Good technology forecasts are specific: who adopts what, by when, under which conditions, and what evidence would show the scenario is moving.
HNX can identify drivers such as distribution, cost, regulation and switching friction, but it does not give them a scientific-looking HNX probability without a registered predictor and resolution contract.
A strong forecast says what would count as evidence against it. HAPPENSNEXT keeps the conditions and counter-signals visible so the story can be challenged.
For the supported route, the registered specialist predictor owns the stored 1X2 vector.
The card reports pre-cutoff inputs, source timestamps, data sufficiency and limitations.
Updates are new revisions. The original probability stays preserved until reality resolves it.