HAPPENSNEXT can discuss unsupported market questions as experimental scenario analysis, but Market Intelligence has no production influence and does not set a user-facing HNX probability.
Prospective market data is collected to evaluate future models. No independent HNX challenger is promoted, and market consensus is never presented as HNX edge.
An unsupported question may receive an explicitly labelled scenario discussion: possible drivers, uncertainty and evidence needed to build a grounded route. It is not a governed forecast card.
A future Market challenger needs a frozen independent specification, point-in-time inputs and prospective paired evaluation against raw and calibrated market consensus.
For the supported route, the registered specialist predictor owns the stored 1X2 vector.
The card reports pre-cutoff inputs, source timestamps, data sufficiency and limitations.
Updates are new revisions. The original probability stays preserved until reality resolves it.